Tennis 4
Who will win the 2026 US Open Women's Singles title?
Aryna Sabalenka is favored at 28–33% to become the first three-peat US Open champion since Serena Williams, riding a 23-1 hard-court season; Iga Swiatek is the runner-up at 15–19%, with Elena Rybakina — the one player who beat Sabalenka in a 2026 major final — the live dissent pick. The seven standing profiles split 4–1–2.
Who will win the 2026 US Open Men's Singles title?
Jannik Sinner is favored at 48–55% off a 44-3 season and a fifth major at Wimbledon, but Carlos Alcaraz — last year's champion here, reportedly fully healed from his wrist injury and returning at Cincinnati in August — is the live runner-up at 18–24%; the seven standing profiles split 4–2–1.
Who will win the 2026 Wimbledon Ladies' Singles title?
Aryna Sabalenka is the single most likely name at 25–30%, held right at her exact-question price — but a champion is collectively likelier to come from the field, the honest runner-up at 22–30%; the seven standing profiles split 5–1–1.
Who will win the 2026 Wimbledon Gentlemen's Singles title?
Jannik Sinner defends at 53–59% — a live No. 1 and defending champion at the most seed-friendly major, with Alcaraz withdrawn; a bottom-half challenger is the runner-up at 16–22% and Elias Lantern backs a fated Djokovic 25th. The seven standing profiles split 3–2–2.
Baseball 1
Will the Houston Astros make the 2026 MLB playoffs?
Houston sits 55-55, half a game out of the last AL Wild Card spot in one of the tightest five-team bubbles in baseball, but sportsbooks price them at only 28–34% to make it (66–72% NO) — the standings look like a coin flip, the market says the underlying roster isn't. The seven standing profiles split 5–2 toward NO.
Basketball 1
Which NBA team will LeBron James play for during the 2026-27 regular season?
LeBron signed a two-year, $8M deal with Philadelphia — his 'last decision' — joining Joel Embiid and newly-acquired Jaylen Brown, after weeks of speculation centered on Cleveland, Miami, and Golden State.
Football 2
Will Brazil advance past Norway in the 2026 World Cup Round of 16?
Erling Haaland scored twice in the final eleven minutes (79', 90') to send Norway through 2-1; Neymar's penalty in stoppage time came too late. Norway reached the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time.
Politics & the Economy
Elections, Washington, and the wars — bare-topic calls, not drawn from a corpus14 markets↑The 2026 Midterms 10
Who wins the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
Ken Paxton is favored near 52-60% on Texas’s three-decade Democratic statewide drought, but two deep markets disagree with each other and James Talarico’s historic fundraising edge keeps a genuine upset path alive.
Who wins the 2026 New Hampshire U.S. Senate race?
Chris Pappas is favored for the open seat near 70-78%, backed by a 2:1 cash edge and a collapsing Trump approval — but a tightening polling trend keeps John Sununu’s comeback bid live.
Who wins the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate race?
Democratic primary favorite Abdul El-Sayed is favored in the general near 52-60%, but his own matchup polling against Mike Rogers runs measurably weaker than rival Haley Stevens’s — a real Republican path stays open in this open-seat race.
Who wins the 2026 Georgia governor's race?
Keisha Lance Bottoms is favored near 53-61% for the open seat after Republican Rick Jackson declined a debate, but his still-unspent $87M ad blitz and a near-tied June poll keep the race live.
What will the national House popular-vote margin be in 2026?
A Democratic-leaning national House result of four to ten points is the modal call, anchored on a real prediction market and the current polling average — with a genuine wave scenario and a compression toward toss-up both kept live.
Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms?
Republicans are favored to keep the Senate — about 58% once the hold sub-paths are summed — because the 2026 map makes Democrats net four seats while defending Georgia and Michigan. The modal path is a narrow GOP hold as the map absorbs a strong Democratic wind.
Who wins the 2026 North Carolina U.S. Senate race — Cooper or Whatley?
The open Tillis seat is Democrats' clearest pickup: former governor Roy Cooper leads RNC chair Michael Whatley and is priced near 78% once the thin market is discounted for a summer lead four months out.
Who wins the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race — Collins or Platner?
The one true toss-up of the five. The markets tilt to Democrat Graham Platner (~57%) on Maine's blue lean, but head-to-head polls are a dead heat and Susan Collins has outrun her state before.
Which party will control the U.S. House after the 2026 midterms?
Democrats are ~83% to win the House on the deepest markets — the president's party has lost seats in 20 of the last 23 midterms — but a Republican-tilted map makes the modal path a narrow-to-moderate flip, not a wave.
Who wins the 2026 Georgia U.S. Senate race — Ossoff or Collins?
Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff is favored near 78%, but Georgia's six straight sub-three-point top-of-ballot finishes mean the summer lead is built to compress. Mike Collins is the live underdog.
Washington & the Fed 2
When the FY2027 appropriations/continuing-resolution fight comes to a head around September 30, 2026, does the federal government suffer a funding lapse (shutdown), or is one averted by a CR or deal?
A near three-way split: a CR or deal narrowly leads at 42–52%, with an extended shutdown running neck-and-neck at 18–26% given this Congress already logged two funding lapses this fiscal year — the desk splits 3 averted / 3 extended / 1 brief.
War & Geopolitics 1
How does the Iran war resolve — settlement, another round, frozen standoff, regime change, or the bomb?
Five priced scenarios for the US–Israel–Iran confrontation: a funded settlement is the favorite at 31–41%, with a third war round overlapping at 27–37% — the six standing profiles split 3–2–1.
The 2028 Race 1
Who wins the 2028 US presidential election?
Democrats are the favorite to retake the White House at 52–58% — a weak favorite over a market-priced ~45% Republican hold, with the person race wide open (Vance the modal Republican, Newsom the modal Democrat); the six standing profiles split 4–2.
Thomas Carlyle 3
Openthrough ~2040The Book That Burned
Thomas Carlyle's The French Revolution: A History (1837)
Openthe work's evolving scholarly reputationCarlyle's Everest
Carlyle's History of Friedrich the Great (1858–1865)
Openthrough 2035The Calvinist Without a Creed
Thomas Carlyle and his Scottish Calvinist formation
Faith & Religion 6
Openthrough ~2040 (trajectory of scholarly interpretation)A Holy War and Its Poet
The Civil War's religious drivers — and Walt Whitman
Openthrough 2050The Man and the Christ
The message and divinity of Jesus
Openthrough 2040More Than a Forerunner
The life, theology, and myth of John the Baptist
Openthrough approximately 2035Tell It Slant
Emily Dickinson — the poet, the recluse, and the long war over her text
Opena generation, through ~2045The Recurring Fire
The First and Second Great Awakenings, and the revival form they left America
Openthrough 2050On This Rock
Roman Catholicism from the apostolic church to Pope Leo XIV — origins, doctrine, the contested Petrine claim, and its trajectory to 2050
Mind & Philosophy 4
Openthrough ~2035 (the next decade)How Knowledge Grows
Jean Piaget — genetic epistemology and the faith that shaped it
Openthe 21st century — standing through ~2050, with a longer-arc note to ~2100An Original Relation to the Universe
Ralph Waldo Emerson — Transcendentalism, self-reliance, and the making of the American mind
Openthrough ~2035A Graveyard of Aristocracies
Vilfredo Pareto — elite theory and the circulation of elites, through and beyond Burnham
Opena generation, framed through ~2045 (trajectory of influence and interpretation)The Cash-Value of Truth
American pragmatism — Peirce, James, Dewey, and the tradition's eclipse, revival, and reach
The Modern World 2
Openthrough 2030, with structural notes to 2035The Map of American Power
The US geopolitical position in 2026: grand strategy, alliances, and trajectory
Openthrough 2035The Argument Over Money
The U.S. economy and financial system — from Hamilton's debt and the 1862 greenback to the Fed, a $39T debt, the AI-vs-entitlement race, and the dollar's future through 2035
Heritage 1
Antitrust & Regulation 2
Will the remedies ruling in US v. Google (ad-tech antitrust) order a structural divestiture of Google's ad-tech assets (AdX and/or DFP), rather than behavioral-only remedies?
Four priced outcomes for Judge Brinkema's ad-tech remedy: a forced AdX-only divestiture is the narrow favorite at 33–42% (YES), essentially tied with a hard conduct-only order at 34–42% (NO) — the seven profiles split 4 YES / 3 NO, Elias Lantern alone on a full AdX+DFP breakup.
Streaming & Platforms 1
Will Netflix, by its Q4 2026 report (~Jan 2027), disclose its ad-supported tier crossing a stated scale/ad-revenue milestone or confirm completion of its in-house Ads Suite cutover — rather than no in-window milestone being cleared under a strict read?
Netflix most likely discloses an ad-tier milestone by its Q4 2026 report at 60–70% (YES), with a strict-reading 'doesn't cleanly count' NO at 17–25%; the desk splits 5–2, the risk being definitional, not business.
Platforms & Deals 3
Openthrough 2028Buying the Living Room
Fox's $22B acquisition of Roku and the fight for the connected-TV stack
Openthrough 2029On Leased Land
MiQ, the independent programmatic trading desk, and its CTV/ATV bet
Openthrough 2029The Missing Front Door
Walmart's $1.4B acquisition of Vibe.co — completing a retail-media + connected-TV ad stack, and the long catch-up to Amazon
Programmatic Infrastructure 4
Openthrough 2028 (directional to 2030)Who Keeps the Spread
Programmatic CTV's DSPs and SSPs — and where the margin really sits for a platform-agnostic intermediary
Openthrough 2029The Protocol War
How AI agents are being wired into the ad buy — MCP, AdCP, the IAB's ARTF, and what agentic buying does to CTV
Openthrough 2030Closer to the Metal
Containerized bidding — when the buyer's bidder moves inside the exchange's data center, and who captures the margin it relocates
Openthrough 2029The Seller's Agent
The supply-side platforms that carry programmatic CTV — and their bet on attention, outcomes and AI
Identity & Addressing 2
Openthrough 2030The Address Knows You
IPv4/IPv6 and the global CTV programmatic landscape
Openthrough 2029The Signal Layer
Identity in programmatic CTV — hashed emails, MAIDs, IP, ACR, clean rooms, and what survives to 2029
Trust, Politics & Society 3
Openthrough 2030Safe Beside What?
Brand safety in programmatic Connected TV — and the global fight over who sets the floor
Openthrough the 2028 presidential cycle (early 2029)The Measured Screen
Political advertising migrates to connected TV — the smart-TV ACR and voter-file targeting stack, who captures the spend, the streaming regulatory gap, and whether any of it actually moves votes.
Openthrough 2029The Living-Room Handoff
How social platforms — LinkedIn, Pinterest, Reddit, TikTok, Meta — extend their audiences onto Connected TV, and which ones credibly make the jump through 2029
Global Markets 2
Openthrough 2030A Billion Screens
India's advertising market — the digital tipping point, programmatic CTV, and YouTube
Openthrough 2030Reach Ahead of Revenue
Latin America's programmatic Connected-TV market — Brazil, Mexico, and the gap between attention and money
