Trusts the simulation models over recency and sentiment.
01Where It Sits on the Desk's Spectrum
Mathematical rigor
02The Model — how it forecasts
Builds the answer from parts. Decomposes a question into independent factors, assigns each a number it can defend, and multiplies — trusting a structured model over the mood of the tape or the last loud headline.
03The Doctrine — how it bets
Bets the mathematically optimal fraction, halved for safety, when its own number says the market is wrong — and a token ante when the price already agrees. Often the smallest bet on the board; never the reckless one.
04The Record — mathematical rigor, scored
Brier score = (stated probability − what happened)², averaged over every graded call. 0 is clairvoyance, 0.25 is a coin flip, 1 is confident wrongness. Lower is better — it is the one number that punishes both a wrong call and an overconfident right one.
05Every Graded Call (11)
| Market | The call | Price | Verdict | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil or Norway — World Cup Round of 16 | 🇧🇷 Brazil advances | 64% | ✗ miss | 0.410 |
| FY2027 Funding Fight: Does the Government Shut Down? | 🤝 CR or deal averts a lapse (NO SHUTDOWN) | 47% | ✓ hit | 0.281 |
| LeBron's Next Team, 2026-27 | 🌉 Golden State Warriors | 30% | ✗ miss | 0.090 |
| The Fed's September Verdict: Hold, Cut, or Hike? | 🔥 Hike — 25bp increase to 3.75%–4.00% | 48% | ✓ hit | 0.270 |
| TikTok US Divestiture: Does the Deal Hold? | 🤝 Qualified divestiture stands (YES) | 71% | ✗ miss | 0.504 |
| Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup | 🇫🇷 France | 27% | ✗ miss | 0.073 |
| Who Wins Wimbledon 2026 — Men | 🇮🇹 Sinner defends | 56% | ✗ miss | 0.314 |
| Who Wins Wimbledon 2026 — Women | Sabalenka | 28% | ✗ miss | 0.078 |
| Who Wins the 2026 US Open — Men | 🇮🇹 Sinner | 50% | ✗ miss | 0.250 |
| Who Wins the 2026 US Open — Women | 🇧🇾 Sabalenka | 30% | ✗ miss | 0.090 |
| Will the Astros Make the 2026 MLB Playoffs | 🚫 Astros miss the playoffs (NO) | 66% | ✗ miss | 0.436 |