calvincollins · xyz

Public markets, CPMs, ad spend, and watch time across Connected TV

The CTV Board

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23 companies tracked 15 regions as of October 24, 2026 28 live bets from the desk

Q3 2026 earnings season is just starting: Netflix has reported (Oct 20); Alphabet reports Oct 28 and Roku Nov 2. Names that haven't reported yet still show their Q2 2026 results (late July–early August). Figures marked “—” were not confirmed in the last research pass.

Public MarketsEarnings and share moves

CTV & Streaming7

ROKURoku
BeatMkt cap $21.7B

Q2 2026: revenue $1.35B (+22% YoY), beat; EPS $1.18 vs $0.61 est. — 5th straight profitable quarter.

Reports Q3 Nov 2 after the close, with no call and no outlook, pending its $22B Fox Corp acquisition (agreed June 15).

TTDThe Trade Desk
Miss

Q2 2026: revenue $715M (+3% YoY), missed $751.5M est.; adj. EPS $0.34 vs $0.37 est.

CFO, CMO, and commercial chief all replaced this quarter.

NFLXNetflix$69.85
In lineMkt cap ~$291B · Oct 19 close

Q3 2026 (Oct 20): revenue $12.87B (+~12%), in-line; EPS $0.87 vs $0.82 est. — beat; op. income $4.46B (+37%), margin 34.6%.

FY26 ad revenue forecast cut to ~$2.7B from ~$3B; 15-country ad-tier expansion pushed to 2027. Q4 EPS guide $0.67 vs $0.73 est.; stock −5–6% after hours. Record $4.8B buyback.

DISDisney
Mixed

Q3 FY26: revenue $25.25B (+7%), slight miss; adj. EPS $2.06 vs $1.86 est. — beat.

Streaming operating income more than doubled YoY to ~$712M; stock +~4% premarket.

SKYDSkydance (Paramount + Warner Bros. Discovery)
Mixed

Last standalone prints (Q2 2026): WBD revenue $8.72B, missed $9.21B est.; PSKY revenue $6.91B vs $6.88B est.

Paramount closed its ~$81B ($111B with debt) WBD acquisition Oct 6, 2026; the combined company trades as SKYD (Ellison and Kreiz co-CEOs). WBD holders got $31.02 cash per share. First combined results not yet reported.

FUBOfuboTV

Figures not confirmed in this research pass.

Sports-first vMVPD; folded the Fox-backed Hulu + Live TV merger in early 2025.

AMCXAMC Networks

Figures not confirmed in this research pass.

Cable-network group leaning on AMC+ bundling as linear affiliate revenue erodes.

Ad-Tech Platforms8

GOOGLAlphabet
Beat

Q2 2026: revenue $119.8B (+24%), beat; ad revenue $81.63B; YouTube ads $11.1B (+13%).

Stock fell >6% on a raised 2026 capex guide ($195–205B, up from $180–190B).

AMZNAmazon>$255
Mkt cap $3T (crossed Aug 3, a first)

Q2 2026: net sales $200.6B (+20%); AWS $42.2B (+37%); ad revenue $19.8B (+26%, nearing $20B/qtr).

2026 capex guide raised to $220B.

MGNIMagnite$22.78
Beatafter-hours

Q2 2026: non-GAAP EPS $0.26 vs $0.25 est.; revenue $192.8M vs $179.2M est. — beat.

CTV now 51% of Contribution ex-TAC, up 36% YoY; FY26 targets raised.

PUBMPubMatic$16.23
Beatafter-hours

Q2 2026: adj. EPS $0.12 vs an est. $0.23 loss — big beat; revenue $78.6M (+11%).

Adj. EBITDA margin 25%, up from 20%.

CRTOCriteo$16.10
Beatpremarket

Q2 2026: adj. EPS $0.80 vs $0.70 est. — beat; revenue $428M.

Stock fell 28% premarket on a guidance cut and enterprise-client pullback; Retail Media spend +31% YoY.

IASIntegral Ad Science

Figures not confirmed in this research pass.

Verification/measurement vendor with growing CTV-specific attention and outcomes products.

DVDoubleVerify

Figures not confirmed in this research pass.

IAS's direct rival in ad verification; both racing to build CTV-native measurement.

APPAppLovin

Figures not confirmed in this research pass.

Mobile-app-install ad platform expanding its AXON engine toward CTV/web inventory.

Legacy Media & Agencies8

CMCSAComcast / NBCUniversal
Mkt cap $87.0B

Q2 2026: revenue $29.94B (-1.2%); adj. EPS $1.04 (-16.7%).

Announced an NBCUniversal+Sky spin-off within 12 months; Peacock's first-ever profitable quarter.

FOXFox Corp.
Mkt cap $21.0B

Q2 FY26: revenue $5.18B; net income $247M, down from $388M YoY.

Ad revenue +1%, Tubi AVOD growth offsetting lower political ad revenue.

WPPWPP310p
Mkt cap $4.44B

H1 2026: like-for-like net sales -4.7% (Q2 -2.8%, improving); operating margin 8.4%.

Net new billings -$1.1B in H1 vs. Publicis +$1.6B.

OMCOmnicom

Post-IPG-merger core revenue ~$6B (£4.5B) — comparisons complicated by the Dec 2025 merger.

PUB.PAPublicis Groupe

H1 2026: organic growth 4.8% in Q2; net revenue €3.77B.

Raised full-year organic growth guidance.

SBGISinclair

Figures not confirmed in this research pass.

Local-broadcast group with a growing CTV/streaming ad-tech arm (Compulse).

NXSTNexstar Media Group

Figures not confirmed in this research pass.

Largest US local-TV station owner; pursuing the pending Tegna acquisition.

SFOR.LS4 Capital

Figures not confirmed in this research pass.

Sir Martin Sorrell's 'new-model' digital agency group, built to compete with the WPP/Omnicom/Publicis holdcos.

CTV CPM BenchmarksWhat inventory is actually clearing at

The benchmarks

Blended average$26
Typical range$25–35
Full market span$15–45
Standard inventory$20–40
Premium / targeted$40–60
Completed-view (CPCV)$2–4

By platform6

Netflix$20–30 programmatic / $45–65 direct
Hulu$10–30
Amazon Prime Video$25–60
YouTube (CTV)$20–35
Disney+ / Hulu bundle$25–45
Roku Channel$15–28

An inventory glut pushed CTV CPMs down 10–30% through 2025 — current levels read as a post-correction floor.

Source: AdWave, Paramount Ads Manager, NAMediaExperts — Q2–Q3 2026

Ad Spend by Country / Region2026 forecast cycle

Global
Total ad spend · dentsu, mid-year 2026
$1.06T+5.0%

Crosses $1 trillion for the first time in 2026, across 56 tracked markets.

United States
CTV ad spend · eMarketer; dentsu
$37.95B+14% YoY

CTV upfront ($17.73B) to exceed primetime linear upfront ($16.98B) for the first time in 2026. Total US ad spend growth (all formats) tracking +5.0%.

Americas (total)
Total ad spend · dentsu
$460.5B+5.2%

The US is the dominant driver of this figure.

Asia-Pacific
Total ad spend · dentsu
$376.4B+5.4%

The fastest-growing region overall.

EMEA (total)
Total ad-spend growth · dentsu
+4.2%

Trails the Americas and APAC — the slowest-growing major region tracked.

China
Total ad-spend growth · dentsu
+6.1%

Driven by short-form video and lifestyle-platform ad formats.

India
Total ad-spend growth · Magna / dentsu
+8.6%

Driven by major sporting events and digital expansion.

Japan
CTV ad spend · industry estimate, not independently confirmed
~$1.0B+17.4% YoY

Smaller base than the US or China but among the fastest-growing CTV markets tracked.

Brazil / LATAM
Total ad-spend growth · Magna
+9.1%

The fastest-growing major market tracked.

Australia
Total ad-spend growth · Magna
+4.1%
Germany
CTV usage growth · industry estimate, not independently confirmed
+21% YoY

A usage figure, not confirmed ad-spend — Germany's CTV ad-spend total wasn't confirmed this pass.

Awaiting confirmationUnited KingdomCanadaSouth KoreaMexico— not confirmed in the last research pass; flagged for follow-up.

Watch Time & Platform ShareWhere the hours actually go

United States

Daily streaming~5 hrs/dayUS/Canada, up 0.7 hrs YoY (TiVo)
Streaming share of TV48.6%of total TV watch-time — Nielsen Gauge, May 2026; a Dec 2025 daily record hit 54% (Christmas Day)
YouTube
13.8%
Disney (portfolio)
10.0%
Netflix
8.0%
Prime Video
4.5%

Bars on a 0–100% scale

Hulu, Roku Channel, and Tubi don't break out individually in the Nielsen Gauge sources found.

Source: Nielsen Gauge (May 2026), TiVo, Comscore

Australia

Streaming share of TV39.6%of TV-set viewing, Q2 2026 (Netflix, Disney+, Prime Video, and YouTube combined); broadcast + BVOD ('Total TV') held the other 60.4%
Total TV (broadcast + BVOD)
60.4%
Digital Video (Netflix, Disney+, Prime, YouTube)
39.6%

Bars on a 0–100% scale

Daily minutes not confirmed this pass. OzTAM's Streamscape dashboard doesn't break the Digital Video bucket into per-service shares.

Source: OzTAM Streamscape, Q2 2026

Canada

Netflix (share of SVOD market)
24.0%

Bars on a 0–100% scale

Daily minutes not confirmed this pass. Overall streaming share of total TV not confirmed this pass. Numeris tracks the SVOD sub-market only in the sources found — a full platform-share picture against linear TV wasn't confirmed.

Source: Numeris, 2026

United Kingdom

Daily minutes not confirmed this pass. Numeric platform shares not confirmed this pass. BARB data (late Dec 2025–early Jan 2026) shows BBC iPlayer leading BVOD viewing and Sky Go leading live streaming, but percentage shares weren't confirmed in this pass.

Source: BARB, Dec 2025–Jan 2026

Latest Bets from the Forecast DeskThe roster’s live positions on Ad Tech & CTV markets

Netflix's Ad Tier: Milestone or Still Building?grades 2027-01-31
📊 Disclosure-as-usual YES: a 2026 ad-revenue figure and/or the completed Microsoft cutover satisfies at least one leg under a lenient-to-standard readmkt 65%
📈 Mira Tape65%🧮 Quinn Ratio65%🔪 Rowan Wayfinder65%⭐ Stella North65%🕊 Elias Lantern65%
🚧 Strict-reading NO: restatements and the pre-window cutover don't count, and no new threshold is crossed in-windowmkt 21%
📜 Ada Ledger21%🎭 Nico Tilt21%
Google Ad-Tech Remedy: Breakup or Behavioral?grades 2027-01-31
⚖️ Partial structural — forced AdX divestiture, DFP handled by conduct terms (resolves YES)mkt 38%
🧮 Quinn Ratio37%🔪 Rowan Wayfinder37%⭐ Stella North37%
🚧 Behavioral / hard-conduct-only order, no forced sale (resolves NO)mkt 38%
📈 Mira Tape38%📜 Ada Ledger38%
⏳ No ruling by Jan 31 2027 — graded on then-current posture (resolves NO)mkt 18%
🎭 Nico Tilt18%
💥 Full structural — forced sale of both AdX AND DFP/Google Ad Manager (resolves YES)mkt 10%
🕊 Elias Lantern10%
The Seller's Agentgrades 2029-12-31
Squeezed but Standingmkt 42%
📈 Mira Tape42%🔪 Rowan Wayfinder42%
Structural Breakmkt 16%
🧮 Quinn Ratio16%🕊 Elias Lantern16%
Up the Stackmkt 19%
⭐ Stella North20%🎭 Nico Tilt20%
Absorbed into the Platformsmkt 22%
📜 Ada Ledger22%
TikTok US Divestiture: Does the Deal Hold?graded 2026-07-16
🤝 Deal stands as a qualified divestiture (resolves YES, uncontested or dismissed)mkt 71%
📈 Mira Tape71%🧮 Quinn Ratio71%🔪 Rowan Wayfinder71%⭐ Stella North71%
⚖️ Certification contested but deal survives intact (still YES, under legal or political cloud)mkt 16%
📜 Ada Ledger16%
📵 Definitional NO — graded not-a-qualified-divestiture without a physical unwindmkt 6%
🎭 Nico Tilt6%
🧨 Judicial unwind or geopolitical collapse — control reverts to ByteDance (resolves NO)mkt 4%
🕊 Elias Lantern5%