Elite individual actors, motivation, proven leadership.
01Where It Sits on the Desk's Spectrum
Intuition & reading
trust the numbertrust the story
02The Model — how it forecasts
Looks for the individual who bends the outcome — the proven leader, the elite actor, the figure who has done it before. Systems matter, but at the hinge a person decides.
03The Doctrine — how it bets
Bets in proportion to its faith in that actor: sure of the hero, it loads up; unsure, it barely shows.
04The Record — mathematical rigor, scored
11
markets graded
3–8
record, hits–misses
27%
hit rate
0.236
mean Brier score
$812
the book
−$188
P&L, play money
Brier score = (stated probability − what happened)², averaged over every graded call. 0 is clairvoyance, 0.25 is a coin flip, 1 is confident wrongness. Lower is better — it is the one number that punishes both a wrong call and an overconfident right one.
05Every Graded Call (11)
| Market | The call | Price | Verdict | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil or Norway — World Cup Round of 16 | 🇧🇷 Brazil advances | 63% | ✗ miss | 0.397 |
| FY2027 Funding Fight: Does the Government Shut Down? | 🤝 CR or deal averts a lapse (NO SHUTDOWN) | 45% | ✓ hit | 0.303 |
| LeBron's Next Team, 2026-27 | 🍷 Cleveland Cavaliers | 41% | ✗ miss | 0.168 |
| The Fed's September Verdict: Hold, Cut, or Hike? | 🔥 Hike — 25bp increase to 3.75%–4.00% | 47% | ✓ hit | 0.281 |
| TikTok US Divestiture: Does the Deal Hold? | 🤝 Qualified divestiture stands (YES) | 71% | ✗ miss | 0.504 |
| Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 24% | ✗ miss | 0.058 |
| Who Wins Wimbledon 2026 — Men | Djokovic wins No. 25 | 13% | ✗ miss | 0.017 |
| Who Wins Wimbledon 2026 — Women | Sabalenka | 28% | ✗ miss | 0.078 |
| Who Wins the 2026 US Open — Men | 🇮🇹 Sinner | 55% | ✗ miss | 0.303 |
| Who Wins the 2026 US Open — Women | 🇧🇾 Sabalenka | 32% | ✗ miss | 0.102 |
| Will the Astros Make the 2026 MLB Playoffs | 🚀 Astros make the playoffs (YES) | 38% | ✓ hit | 0.384 |
06Open Positions (13)
The 2026 World Series — 🌊 Tampa Bay Rays @ 45%grades Sunday, November 1, 2026New Zealand's Election, November 2026 — 🔴 Labour-led Government @ 38%grades Tuesday, December 15, 2026The 2027 NBA Champion — 🤠 San Antonio Spurs @ 25%grades Wednesday, June 30, 2027Israel's Knesset Vote, October 2026 — 🟢 Eisenkot Government @ 46%grades Thursday, December 31, 2026Brazil's Runoff, October 2026 — 🌹 Lula @ 47%grades Sunday, October 25, 2026The 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot Margin — 🔵 Democratic wave (D+10 or more) @ 30%grades Tuesday, November 3, 2026Netflix's Ad Tier: Milestone or Still Building? — 📊 Disclosure-as-usual YES: a 2026 ad-revenue figure and/or the completed Microsoft cutover satisfies at least one leg under a lenient-to-standard read @ 65%grades Sunday, January 31, 2027The Iran War Through 2028 — 🕊️ Settlement Holds @ 36%grades Sunday, December 31, 2028Control of the U.S. House, 2026 — Republicans hold the House @ 16%grades Tuesday, November 3, 2026Google Ad-Tech Remedy: Breakup or Behavioral? — ⚖️ Partial structural — forced AdX divestiture, DFP handled by conduct terms (resolves YES) @ 37%grades Sunday, January 31, 2027The Seller's Agent — Up the Stack @ 0.2%grades Monday, December 31, 2029The Argument Nobody Finished — Fiscal Discipline Reassertion @ 0.21%grades through 2035The Sea Does Not Say — Translated Canon @ 49%grades through 2050