OpenTrust, Politics & Societythrough 2030
35–45%
Most likely outcome
Fragmented Floor (base case)
Brand safety in programmatic Connected TV — and the global fight over who sets the floor
Read the full research →01The Outcomes — 5 scenarios, priced by the research
Fragmented Floor (base case)35–45%
Drivers
- post-GARM vacuum
- vendor consolidation
- FTC chilling effect
- head-first transparency
Signals to watch
- no successor body by 2027
- FTC orders survive
- transparency stays premium-only
Horizon · dominant by 2028, persistent through 2030
Content-Level Resolution18–25%
Drivers
- content-level transparency reaches the tail
- accredited AI classification
- privacy law forces content methods
Signals to watch
- transparency expands to FAST/OEM
- accredited AI-classifier benchmark
- content IDs converge
Horizon · credible by 2029-2030
Walled-Garden Consolidation12–18%
Drivers
- retail-media convergence
- streamer O&O growth
- log-level fights favor sellers
Signals to watch
- O&O share grows while 3P content accreditation stalls
- retail-media CTV passes 1-in-5 dollars
Horizon · most visible 2028-2030
Fraud-and-Fragmentation Drift12–18%
Drivers
- FAST sprawl
- fraud economy outruns tooling
- flight to PMPs/gardens
Signals to watch
- IVT rises
- new ICEBUCKET-scale scheme
- device attestation stalls
Horizon · slow drift
Re-coordination Under Legal Cover8–14%
Drivers
- DSA mandates platform safety (Brussels effect)
- US legal clarification enables neutral body
Signals to watch
- DSA enforced vs CTV platforms
- new antitrust-counseled convener
- 5th Circuit narrows FTC theory
Horizon · EU path live now; US path contingent on appeal
Probabilities are the research's own scenario bands, priced as outcomes. The full argument — history, current state, drivers, and sources — lives in the corpus: read the Future Trajectory chapter.
