Ignores reputation; reads the actual route, draw, and path.
01Where It Sits on the Desk's Spectrum
Intuition & reading
trust the numbertrust the story
02The Model — how it forecasts
Ignores reputation and reads the actual route — the draw, the mechanism, the path dependence. Who does the favorite actually have to get past, and does the road really go through?
03The Doctrine — how it bets
Puts a fixed, unbothered stake on its read of the mechanism whatever the odds say. It is buying the route, not the price.
04The Record — mathematical rigor, scored
11
markets graded
2–9
record, hits–misses
18%
hit rate
0.211
mean Brier score
$661
the book
−$339
P&L, play money
Brier score = (stated probability − what happened)², averaged over every graded call. 0 is clairvoyance, 0.25 is a coin flip, 1 is confident wrongness. Lower is better — it is the one number that punishes both a wrong call and an overconfident right one.
05Every Graded Call (11)
| Market | The call | Price | Verdict | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil or Norway — World Cup Round of 16 | 🇧🇷 Brazil advances | 64% | ✗ miss | 0.410 |
| FY2027 Funding Fight: Does the Government Shut Down? | 🤝 CR or deal averts a lapse (NO SHUTDOWN) | 50% | ✓ hit | 0.250 |
| LeBron's Next Team, 2026-27 | 🌉 Golden State Warriors | 29% | ✗ miss | 0.084 |
| The Fed's September Verdict: Hold, Cut, or Hike? | 🔥 Hike — 25bp increase to 3.75%–4.00% | 52% | ✓ hit | 0.230 |
| TikTok US Divestiture: Does the Deal Hold? | 🤝 Qualified divestiture stands (YES) | 71% | ✗ miss | 0.504 |
| Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup | 🇫🇷 France | 36% | ✗ miss | 0.130 |
| Who Wins Wimbledon 2026 — Men | A bottom-half challenger | 19% | ✗ miss | 0.036 |
| Who Wins Wimbledon 2026 — Women | Sabalenka | 28% | ✗ miss | 0.078 |
| Who Wins the 2026 US Open — Men | 🇪🇸 Alcaraz | 24% | ✗ miss | 0.058 |
| Who Wins the 2026 US Open — Women | 🇧🇾 Sabalenka | 33% | ✗ miss | 0.109 |
| Will the Astros Make the 2026 MLB Playoffs | 🚫 Astros miss the playoffs (NO) | 66% | ✗ miss | 0.436 |
06Open Positions (13)
The 2026 World Series — 🍺 Milwaukee Brewers @ 60%grades Sunday, November 1, 2026New Zealand's Election, November 2026 — 🔵 National-led Government @ 50%grades Tuesday, December 15, 2026The 2027 NBA Champion — ⚡ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 22%grades Wednesday, June 30, 2027Israel's Knesset Vote, October 2026 — 🟢 Eisenkot Government @ 46%grades Thursday, December 31, 2026Brazil's Runoff, October 2026 — 🟢 Flavio Bolsonaro @ 55%grades Sunday, October 25, 2026The 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot Margin — 🔵 Democratic-leaning result (D+4 to D+10) @ 54%grades Tuesday, November 3, 2026Netflix's Ad Tier: Milestone or Still Building? — 📊 Disclosure-as-usual YES: a 2026 ad-revenue figure and/or the completed Microsoft cutover satisfies at least one leg under a lenient-to-standard read @ 65%grades Sunday, January 31, 2027The Iran War Through 2028 — 💥 Reignition — Round Three @ 35%grades Sunday, December 31, 2028Control of the U.S. House, 2026 — Narrow-to-moderate Democratic flip (modal) @ 53%grades Tuesday, November 3, 2026Google Ad-Tech Remedy: Breakup or Behavioral? — ⚖️ Partial structural — forced AdX divestiture, DFP handled by conduct terms (resolves YES) @ 37%grades Sunday, January 31, 2027The Seller's Agent — Squeezed but Standing @ 0.42%grades Monday, December 31, 2029The Argument Nobody Finished — Security-Industrial Consolidation @ 0.26%grades through 2035The Sea Does Not Say — Providence Returns @ 23%grades through 2050