The callEisenkot's Yashar leads the independent polls for the largest party and sits near half the next-PM market. The opposition route to 61 needs Arab-party support, which is a real cost but a known one, and the stall outcome is kept honest in the residual band.
Why over the runner-upYashar leads Likud in most of the recent surveys and the next-PM market prices Eisenkot near 50%. Netanyahu's route runs through the coalition reaching 61, which no independent poll shows.
Strongest surviving dissentThe comeback case survived scrutiny. Channel 14 has Likud at 29 seats with a coalition majority, and Netanyahu's record of returning from a deficit is real. If the Likud-led bloc reaches 61 on the count, this dissent becomes the lead.
Eisenkot Government44–52%
Yashar leads the largest bloc and Eisenkot forms the government, through either a 61-seat majority with Arab-party support or a coalition deal that clears the threshold before year-end.
How this number was derived
Polymarket next-PM-after-election prices Eisenkot near 50% (undated snapshot), shaded down to 44–52 because the opposition's 61 needs Arab-party support: Channel 13 (late Sept) had the opposition at 52 and Arab parties at 13. Yashar led Likud in the Channel 12 and Maariv readings.
Drivers
- Yashar as largest party in most recent surveys
- Arab-party willingness to support an opposition government
- Likud's internal pressure after a poor result
Signals to watch
- Official seat count on election night versus the Channel 12 and Maariv final polls
- Arab-party announcements on recommending a candidate for prime minister
- Consultations with the President before the mandate is assigned
Horizon · Government formed by Dec 31, 2026
Netanyahu Government33–41%
The Likud-led bloc reaches 61 or a workable majority and Netanyahu returns to the premiership before year-end.
How this number was derived
P(Netanyahu still PM at end-2026) = 1 − 0.40 = 0.60, from the Polymarket exit market (Yes 40%, Oct 17). Of that, about 0.6 runs through a Likud-led coalition rather than a caretaker or rotation deal, giving about 36%; band 33–41.
Drivers
- Channel 14 and polls showing Likud at 26–29 seats
- The coalition bloc at 51 seats in the independent polls
- Netanyahu's record of recovering from a 2021 loss
Signals to watch
- Whether the right-religious bloc reaches 61 without the Arab parties
- Likud's coalition agreements with the smaller right-wing parties
- Any Netanyahu legal development that changes his availability
Horizon · Government formed by Dec 31, 2026
Stalemate Past Dec 318–16%
Neither bloc forms a government by year-end; coalition talks drag past the deadline or force a second round.
How this number was derived
Residual: 100 − (midpoint 48 + midpoint 37) = 15, band 8–16. No poll reaches 61 for either bloc, so a stall is a live route rather than a tail.
Drivers
- Neither bloc at 61 in any independent poll
- Formation windows that can run past a deadline
- The Arab parties as a swing bloc
Signals to watch
- Failed mandates handed to a second candidate
- A deal among the Arab parties and the opposition
- Any announced return to the polls
Horizon · No government by Dec 31, 2026
51 · 52 · 13
Coalition, opposition and Arab-party seats in Channel 13's late-September poll — neither bloc reaches 61 without the Arab parties.
2021 → 2022
Netanyahu lost the premiership in 2021 and returned in December 2022, the counted precedent for recovery from a deficit.
Yashar lead
Yashar led Likud in most recent surveys, though Channel 14 had Likud on top at 29 seats — the pollsters disagree on the lead.
The Eisenkot-led outcome is the single most likely at 44–52%, which also means it is more likely than not that Eisenkot does not form the government. The poll stack disagrees on the lead, and the newest figures on file are from mid-October.