Follows the deepest, most liquid market prices.
01Where It Sits on the Desk's Spectrum
Mathematical rigor
trust the numbertrust the story
02The Model — how it forecasts
Reads the tape. The deepest, most liquid market price is the best estimate anyone has; the job is to respect it and lean only when a real gap opens between the price and the evidence.
03The Doctrine — how it bets
The smallest player at the table: a token stake riding the market's own price most nights, and a real lean only when the tape visibly disagrees with itself.
04The Record — mathematical rigor, scored
11
markets graded
1–10
record, hits–misses
9%
hit rate
0.254
mean Brier score
$927
the book
−$73
P&L, play money
Brier score = (stated probability − what happened)², averaged over every graded call. 0 is clairvoyance, 0.25 is a coin flip, 1 is confident wrongness. Lower is better — it is the one number that punishes both a wrong call and an overconfident right one.
05Every Graded Call (11)
| Market | The call | Price | Verdict | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil or Norway — World Cup Round of 16 | 🇧🇷 Brazil advances | 65% | ✗ miss | 0.423 |
| FY2027 Funding Fight: Does the Government Shut Down? | ⏳ Brief shutdown (resolved within ~2 weeks) | 30% | ✗ miss | 0.090 |
| LeBron's Next Team, 2026-27 | 🍷 Cleveland Cavaliers | 40% | ✗ miss | 0.160 |
| The Fed's September Verdict: Hold, Cut, or Hike? | 🔥 Hike — 25bp increase to 3.75%–4.00% | 50% | ✓ hit | 0.250 |
| TikTok US Divestiture: Does the Deal Hold? | 🤝 Qualified divestiture stands (YES) | 71% | ✗ miss | 0.504 |
| Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup | 🇫🇷 France | 33% | ✗ miss | 0.109 |
| Who Wins Wimbledon 2026 — Men | 🇮🇹 Sinner defends | 56% | ✗ miss | 0.314 |
| Who Wins Wimbledon 2026 — Women | Sabalenka | 28% | ✗ miss | 0.078 |
| Who Wins the 2026 US Open — Men | 🇮🇹 Sinner | 53% | ✗ miss | 0.281 |
| Who Wins the 2026 US Open — Women | 🇧🇾 Sabalenka | 31% | ✗ miss | 0.096 |
| Will the Astros Make the 2026 MLB Playoffs | 🚫 Astros miss the playoffs (NO) | 70% | ✗ miss | 0.490 |
06Open Positions (13)
The 2026 World Series — 🍺 Milwaukee Brewers @ 59%grades Sunday, November 1, 2026New Zealand's Election, November 2026 — 🔵 National-led Government @ 46%grades Tuesday, December 15, 2026The 2027 NBA Champion — 🤠 San Antonio Spurs @ 23%grades Wednesday, June 30, 2027Israel's Knesset Vote, October 2026 — 🟢 Eisenkot Government @ 50%grades Thursday, December 31, 2026Brazil's Runoff, October 2026 — 🟢 Flavio Bolsonaro @ 55%grades Sunday, October 25, 2026The 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot Margin — 🔵 Democratic-leaning result (D+4 to D+10) @ 58%grades Tuesday, November 3, 2026Netflix's Ad Tier: Milestone or Still Building? — 📊 Disclosure-as-usual YES: a 2026 ad-revenue figure and/or the completed Microsoft cutover satisfies at least one leg under a lenient-to-standard read @ 65%grades Sunday, January 31, 2027The Iran War Through 2028 — 🕊️ Settlement Holds @ 38%grades Sunday, December 31, 2028Control of the U.S. House, 2026 — Narrow-to-moderate Democratic flip (modal) @ 53%grades Tuesday, November 3, 2026Google Ad-Tech Remedy: Breakup or Behavioral? — 🚧 Behavioral / hard-conduct-only order, no forced sale (resolves NO) @ 38%grades Sunday, January 31, 2027The Seller's Agent — Squeezed but Standing @ 0.42%grades Monday, December 31, 2029The Argument Nobody Finished — Eclectic Consolidation @ 0.44%grades through 2035The Sea Does Not Say — Translated Canon @ 49%grades through 2050