OpenGlobal Marketsthrough 2030
50–60%
Most likely outcome
Reach compounds into revenue (base case)
Latin America's programmatic Connected-TV market — Brazil, Mexico, and the gap between attention and money
Read the full research →01The Outcomes — 3 scenarios, priced by the research
Reach compounds into revenue (base case)50–60%
The monetization gap narrows steadily: six-country CTV ad spend roughly doubles to ~USD 1-2.5B by 2028-2030, ~20% YoY near-term decaying to a low-teens CAGR, Brazil and Mexico still ~80%, AVOD/FAST the core, premium supply trading mostly via curated private deals.
Drivers
- ~90% household device penetration by 2029
- AVOD revenue tripling, FAST households doubling
- maturing five-DSP premium-streaming market
- retail-media-led CTV
Signals to watch
- per-country CTV dollar disclosures land in this band
- Mercado Ads CTV revenue scales
- Roku Brazil still expanding into 2027
- PMP/PG share of premium stays dominant
Horizon · Distinguishing features visible by 2027-2028
Reach without revenue persists (bear case)20–30%
Audience grows, money lags. Six-country spend stalls near the bottom of the band (~USD 1B by 2030) as FX/macro shocks, the open-auction quality problem, the CPM data vacuum, the children's-profiling and betting-ad regimes, and YouTube's pull on pricing keep monetization behind reach.
Drivers
- FX/macro volatility
- high open-auction IVT and CPM opacity
- children's-profiling and betting-ad regimes
- measurement/identity fragmentation
- YouTube's pull on premium pricing
Signals to watch
- Pixalate IVT staying elevated
- peso/real sharp depreciation
- ANPD/SABG enforcement touching ad-tech
- betting-ad revenue declining as projected
Horizon · Evident by 2027 if monetization fails to track reach
The living room monetizes fast (bull case)15–25%
Spend sprints to the top of the band (~USD 2.5B+ by 2030). The 2026 World Cup, addressable free-to-air (DTV+), SVOD-ad-tier auction conversion, and a market decision to count YouTube-on-TV pull budgets into addressable streaming faster than expected.
Drivers
- World Cup 2026 as programmatic showcase
- YouTube-on-TV counted in
- DTV+ addressable broadcast
- SVOD-ad-tier auction conversion
- Brazil 5G/FWA lifting reach ceiling
Signals to watch
- IAB counts YouTube-on-TV as CTV
- Netflix LATAM auction migration
- step-change in Mexican ad-tier penetration
- DTV+ receivers selling fast
Horizon · Would announce itself in the 2026 World Cup window and 2026-27 upfronts
Probabilities are the research's own scenario bands, priced as outcomes. The full argument — history, current state, drivers, and sources — lives in the corpus: read the Future Trajectory chapter.
