The Map of American Power

Iran weakened by June 2025 strikes and proxy attrition but regime persists; nuclear program partially set back; continued covert competition.

Export controls + outbound investment screening + tariffs continue at current pace; PRC builds parallel supply chains slowly; world economy bifurcates in tech but not finance.

Rhetoric persists; kinetic action limited to interdiction and targeted strikes; no major land operation; partial scaling-back after political resistance.

Quad/AUKUS/Camp David deepen; NATO bumpy but persists; European autonomy grows at margin.

Conflict freezes along current lines; Russia retains territorial gains, Ukraine receives security guarantees short of NATO membership; sanctions ratchet partially relaxed.

Sino-American structural rivalry without kinetic war; gradual dollar erosion; Indo-Pacific deepens; European architecture strains but holds; Latin America posture hardens then partially walks back; no single major crisis dominates.

PRC runs sustained gray-zone campaign — quarantine-light, ADIZ violations, cyber, economic coercion — without crossing kinetic threshold. US-Taiwan response stays below war.

Cross-Strait status quo persists; PLA activity remains exercises and gray-zone short of major escalation; US-Japan-Philippines deterrence credibly holds.

Formal armistice with Ukrainian territorial concessions; structured peace process; eventual sanctions relaxation tied to Russian behavior.

Trump II posture persists past 2028; expanded deployments; Venezuela regime change consolidated; cartel campaign continues; PRC investment displaced.

Major trigger (Taiwan crisis, AI breakout, sanctions retaliation) accelerates decoupling; finance and capital markets begin to fragment.

European strategic autonomy accelerates; transatlantic split widens; NATO weakens.

Major US-Israel-Iran kinetic exchange beyond June 2025 strikes; regional spillover.

Political resistance, casualties, or strategic refocus produces de-escalation; sanctions architecture adjusted; reset hemispheric relations.

Major US fiscal or geopolitical crisis accelerates diversification; share drops below 50% by 2030.

Sino-American crisis or PRC capital controls force flight to USD; share stabilizes near 56%.

Trump II posture produces perceived US re-assertion; allies recommit; China reassesses; dollar holds; semiconductor reshoring delivers.

Fiscal/industry pressure produces partial US-China deals; tariff schedules relaxed; investment flows partially restored.

US scales back across regions; allies hedge openly; Korea/Japan nuclear questions surface.

Taiwan + Ukraine + Iran + hemisphere stress simultaneously; alliance architecture overwhelmed; dollar and Treasury markets stressed; partial fragmentation.

Explicit US-China understanding emerges (formal or informal); spheres of influence partially clarified; cooler period.

Iran demonstrates nuclear capability despite strikes; regional cascade pressure.

PRC seizes outlying islands (Kinmen/Matsu/Pratas) or conducts limited blockade/missile demonstration; conflict stays sub-invasion.

Major Venezuela land operation; OAS rupture; refugee crisis.

Sanctions-and-export-controls escalate sharply; PRC retaliates on critical minerals/financial holdings; mutual damage.

2028 election or external crisis produces restoration of pre-Trump-II alliance posture.

PLA attempts amphibious invasion of Taiwan main island; major war.

Taiwan internal politics shift toward accommodation with Beijing; de facto unification or formal arrangement.

Russia achieves operational breakthrough; takes additional Ukrainian territory; alters strategic calculus.

Ukraine achieves operational breakthrough; recovers significant territory; changes Russian internal politics.

Internal Iranian regime change; uncertain successor stance.

Broad regional settlement; Saudi-Israeli normalization completes; Iran constrained.

Multiple regional currency blocs emerge; sanctions architecture loses bite; structural shift.

Direct NATO-Russia clash; nuclear use or near-nuclear-use crisis.