Counted reference-class base rates and venue history.
01Where It Sits on the Desk's Spectrum
Mathematical rigor
trust the numbertrust the story
02The Model — how it forecasts
Counts. Finds the reference class — the last N times something like this came up — and reads the ledger of what usually happened. The base rate is the anchor, and the story of the day rarely beats it.
03The Doctrine — how it bets
Stakes the same disciplined unit on its pick every time, win or lose. The consistency is the edge.
04The Record — mathematical rigor, scored
11
markets graded
1–10
record, hits–misses
9%
hit rate
0.186
mean Brier score
$735
the book
−$265
P&L, play money
Brier score = (stated probability − what happened)², averaged over every graded call. 0 is clairvoyance, 0.25 is a coin flip, 1 is confident wrongness. Lower is better — it is the one number that punishes both a wrong call and an overconfident right one.
05Every Graded Call (11)
| Market | The call | Price | Verdict | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil or Norway — World Cup Round of 16 | 🇧🇷 Brazil advances | 66% | ✗ miss | 0.436 |
| FY2027 Funding Fight: Does the Government Shut Down? | 🪦 Extended shutdown (2+ weeks) | 22% | ✗ miss | 0.048 |
| LeBron's Next Team, 2026-27 | 🍷 Cleveland Cavaliers | 38% | ✗ miss | 0.144 |
| The Fed's September Verdict: Hold, Cut, or Hike? | ⏸ Hold — rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% | 40% | ✗ miss | 0.160 |
| TikTok US Divestiture: Does the Deal Hold? | ⚖️ Survives under legal cloud (YES) | 16% | ✗ miss | 0.026 |
| Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 26% | ✗ miss | 0.068 |
| Who Wins Wimbledon 2026 — Men | 🇮🇹 Sinner defends | 56% | ✗ miss | 0.314 |
| Who Wins Wimbledon 2026 — Women | Named mid-tier contender | 26% | ✗ miss | 0.068 |
| Who Wins the 2026 US Open — Men | 🇮🇹 Sinner | 49% | ✗ miss | 0.240 |
| Who Wins the 2026 US Open — Women | 🇧🇾 Sabalenka | 28% | ✗ miss | 0.078 |
| Will the Astros Make the 2026 MLB Playoffs | 🚀 Astros make the playoffs (YES) | 32% | ✓ hit | 0.462 |
06Open Positions (13)
The 2026 World Series — 🍺 Milwaukee Brewers @ 56%grades Sunday, November 1, 2026New Zealand's Election, November 2026 — 🔵 National-led Government @ 45%grades Tuesday, December 15, 2026The 2027 NBA Champion — 🗽 New York Knicks @ 12%grades Wednesday, June 30, 2027Israel's Knesset Vote, October 2026 — 🔴 Netanyahu Government @ 37%grades Thursday, December 31, 2026Brazil's Runoff, October 2026 — 🟢 Flavio Bolsonaro @ 56%grades Sunday, October 25, 2026The 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot Margin — ⚪ Toss-up range (R+2 to D+4) @ 32%grades Tuesday, November 3, 2026Netflix's Ad Tier: Milestone or Still Building? — 🚧 Strict-reading NO: restatements and the pre-window cutover don't count, and no new threshold is crossed in-window @ 21%grades Sunday, January 31, 2027The Iran War Through 2028 — 💥 Reignition — Round Three @ 34%grades Sunday, December 31, 2028Control of the U.S. House, 2026 — Narrow-to-moderate Democratic flip (modal) @ 53%grades Tuesday, November 3, 2026Google Ad-Tech Remedy: Breakup or Behavioral? — 🚧 Behavioral / hard-conduct-only order, no forced sale (resolves NO) @ 38%grades Sunday, January 31, 2027The Seller's Agent — Absorbed into the Platforms @ 0.22%grades Monday, December 31, 2029The Argument Nobody Finished — Eclectic Consolidation @ 0.41%grades through 2035The Sea Does Not Say — Translated Canon @ 49%grades through 2050