OpenMind & Philosophythrough 2050
01The Outcomes — 4 scenarios, priced by the research
Stable center52%
How this number was derived
Core retention minus revival. Core retention = P(class stays core) 0.86 (rule of succession on 5 of 5 Matthiessen writers, (5+1)/(5+2)) x Hawthorne-specific factor 0.80 (range 0.70-0.90) = 0.69 (range 0.60-0.77). Minus revival 0.17 = 0.52 (range 0.45-0.58).
Horizon · Steady through 2050; no inflection expected
Regional and genre reclassification23%
How this number was derived
Demotion 0.31 (range 0.23-0.40) x regional-or-minor share 3/4, from the nine-writer eclipse table (Longfellow, Whittier and Holmes demoted to minor or regional status) = 0.23 (range 0.17-0.29).
Horizon · Mostly 2035 to 2050
Revival through editions and readings17%
How this number was derived
P(at least one reappraisal wave in 24 years) 0.68 (four waves in 85 years, rate 0.047/yr, 1 - e^-1.13) x P(wave lifts general standing) 0.25 (one of four clearly did; range 0.15-0.35) = 0.17 (range 0.10-0.24).
Horizon · 2030 to 2040, if it comes
Specialist drift8%
How this number was derived
Demotion 0.31 (range 0.23-0.40) x specialist share 1/4, from the nine-writer eclipse table (one steady, four revived, three demoted to minor or regional, one reduced classic kept outside the core; demoted split 3 regional : 1 specialist) = 0.08 (range 0.05-0.11).
Horizon · Mostly 2035 to 2045
Probabilities are the research's own scenario bands, priced as outcomes. The full argument — history, current state, drivers, and sources — lives in the corpus: read the Future Trajectory chapter.