Favorites usually fail; hunts the underpriced live path.
01Where It Sits on the Desk's Spectrum
Creative hypothesis
trust the numbertrust the story
02The Model — how it forecasts
Starts from the premise that favorites are overrated and the crowd is a step behind. Hunts the live path everyone has written off and asks what the board is mispricing.
03The Doctrine — how it bets
Bets bigger the longer the odds on the underdog it likes — half-size when the board already agrees with it. Its worst nights are quiet, its best nights are loud.
04The Record — mathematical rigor, scored
11
markets graded
3–8
record, hits–misses
27%
hit rate
0.246
mean Brier score
$2,920
the book
+$1,920
P&L, play money
Brier score = (stated probability − what happened)², averaged over every graded call. 0 is clairvoyance, 0.25 is a coin flip, 1 is confident wrongness. Lower is better — it is the one number that punishes both a wrong call and an overconfident right one.
05Every Graded Call (11)
| Market | The call | Price | Verdict | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil or Norway — World Cup Round of 16 | 🇳🇴 Norway advances | 35% | ✓ hit | 0.423 |
| FY2027 Funding Fight: Does the Government Shut Down? | 🪦 Extended shutdown (2+ weeks) | 24% | ✗ miss | 0.058 |
| LeBron's Next Team, 2026-27 | 🔔 Philadelphia 76ers | 17% | ✓ hit | 0.689 |
| The Fed's September Verdict: Hold, Cut, or Hike? | ⏸ Hold — rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% | 42% | ✗ miss | 0.176 |
| TikTok US Divestiture: Does the Deal Hold? | 📵 Definitional NO | 6% | ✗ miss | 0.004 |
| Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 14% | ✗ miss | 0.020 |
| Who Wins Wimbledon 2026 — Men | A bottom-half challenger | 19% | ✗ miss | 0.036 |
| Who Wins Wimbledon 2026 — Women | Deep-field unseeded shock | 10.5% | ✗ miss | 0.011 |
| Who Wins the 2026 US Open — Men | 🇪🇸 Alcaraz | 26% | ✗ miss | 0.068 |
| Who Wins the 2026 US Open — Women | 🇰🇿 Rybakina | 16% | ✓ hit | 0.706 |
| Will the Astros Make the 2026 MLB Playoffs | 🚫 Astros miss the playoffs (NO) | 72% | ✗ miss | 0.518 |
06Open Positions (13)
The 2026 World Series — 🌊 Tampa Bay Rays @ 42%grades Sunday, November 1, 2026New Zealand's Election, November 2026 — ⬜ Hung Result, Talks Run On @ 12%grades Tuesday, December 15, 2026The 2027 NBA Champion — 🔔 Philadelphia 76ers @ 10%grades Wednesday, June 30, 2027Israel's Knesset Vote, October 2026 — ⬜ Stalemate Past Dec 31 @ 14%grades Thursday, December 31, 2026Brazil's Runoff, October 2026 — 🌹 Lula @ 46%grades Sunday, October 25, 2026The 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot Margin — ⚪ Toss-up range (R+2 to D+4) @ 26%grades Tuesday, November 3, 2026Netflix's Ad Tier: Milestone or Still Building? — 🚧 Strict-reading NO: restatements and the pre-window cutover don't count, and no new threshold is crossed in-window @ 21%grades Sunday, January 31, 2027The Iran War Through 2028 — 🧊 Cold Truce / Frozen Standoff @ 19%grades Sunday, December 31, 2028Control of the U.S. House, 2026 — Knife-edge — control decided by a handful of seats or delayed calls @ 8%grades Tuesday, November 3, 2026Google Ad-Tech Remedy: Breakup or Behavioral? — ⏳ No ruling by Jan 31 2027 — graded on then-current posture (resolves NO) @ 18%grades Sunday, January 31, 2027The Seller's Agent — Up the Stack @ 0.2%grades Monday, December 31, 2029The Argument Nobody Finished — Fiscal Discipline Reassertion @ 0.22%grades through 2035The Sea Does Not Say — Hollowed Canon @ 11.5%grades through 2050